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Halloween Weather Update (Cold!)

20/10/18

Halloween Weather Update (Cold!)


In the first update of our Halloween Weather, we shall be looking at the good ol' prolonged CFSv2 model, however over the course of our updates we will be looking at a lot more models, the GFS, ECMWF, GEM. Just to name a few. However to get us all into that Halloween season, we shall be taking a look at the Halloween period, up until November 2nd.

Interestingly in the latest CFSv2 update that I'm working on right now, 18z Friday. Today I'm writing this on Saturday, I can see from now up until October 25th or so our weather will be dominated by mostly calm, dry weather due to high pressure, the next few days or so, doesn't look to be particularly interesting in terms of eventful weather, but it looks rather pleasant in terms of dry weather for the UK and Ireland, a little wet in the Eastern portion of Europe.

While the UK remains quite mild in terms of uppers up until the 25th of October much of Eastern Europe, and parts of Germany have quite cool ones.

Although on the 25th of October, the cool uppers looks like it'll mostly push out of Germany although a cold air blast will dig deeper into parts of Ukraine, where parts of Ukraine could see particularly chilly nights of around 1-2 celsius, not ruling out temperatures of around freezing mostly for northern areas of the country.

The UK and Ireland will mostly continuously dominated by high pressure up until this period, this mostly allows, the colder weather to develop across Eastern Europe.

However according to the CFSv2 model on the 26th of October (around this time) the high pressure looks as if it will recede southwards, allowing northerly winds to develop across the UK, and Ireland. on the 27th of October it looks as though it will be cold enough for some areas to develop snow showers, but it may not settle for long.

After that brief cold snap by the 29th or 30th we will already have high pressure back in the UK, although the cold weather would have moved to much of Central Europe by this point, it'll be still cold for the UK, and Ireland mostly, and the uppers will be mostly cold still and as that high pressure returns of the UK, it'll mostly continue to be chilly, and foggy probably. With showers restricted to coastal areas, not ruling out the odd rogue shower inland, some of which could be sleet or snow.


On Halloween it looks particularly cold for Central Europe, enough for snow I should think, for the UK and Ireland it'll be a chilly Halloween, possibly foggy in western areas mostly dry but I don't think it'll be cold enough for snow, but on Halloween and into November it looks as though we shall be developing an south easterly wind, according to the CFSv2, looks mostly dry, but nothing particularly cold seems to be coming into view on the model.



That's The 1st Update, expect another one relatively soon.


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