Looking At Winter 18/19 Models

Looking At Winter 18/19 Models

Before we begin, I'd like to stress that it is still early days, so whatever the models are saying at this point in time, may be totally different to what they may be saying in a few months time. This is just for fun, and an interesting look at what the Winter of 2018/19 may be like.

So first half I'd like to start of with the CFSV2 model.

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Not much to go off from this I dont think, however the high pressure usually close to Spain looks like it is a lot weaker, and more to the south than usual. But we have that huge swathe of low pressure to the West. With Not much to go on, I can have a little guess from the things we do see, and I believe the CFS is probably going for a mild zonal winter with this update, it'd probably be quite stormy, I think, because high pressure seems way away from us. However it's still early days and these models could change.

JAMSTEC

Now, onto JAMSTEC. JAMSTEC looks quite interesting going by their temp anomaly for the winter of 18/19 so far, especially if you're in the Republic of Ireland.

Much of Europe looks relatively mild, but then we look towards the UK and Ireland, and we see cooler anomalies, which is interesting if you want a cold winter, Ireland, and parts of Scotland seem to have the coldest anomalies in Europe.

 Precipitation Anomalies look more interesting if you would like a cool winter, and it does seem to suggest that the jetstream will go on a southerly track this winter. However I must stress it's early days!

ECMWF

Now lets look at the Public ECMWF anomalies for this upcoming winter.

Not much to go on here but as you can see its quite cool towards the West and South West of the country, but not enough to suggest that we'll have a cool winter. So at this point there's either not enough data or, there's an equal chance.

Precipitation once again is quite interesting if you look to the north west of the UK we see strikingly dry anomalies, and wetter anomalies to the south of the UK. If you want a colder than average, or at least a cooler winter then this is a good sign, to see the wetter anomalies to the south, because the generally suggests the jetstream will nose dive southwards.

I think the ECMWF is hinting at a cool winter in this model going by the precipitation models mainly, and the greater warmth chance in the Arctic.

In conclusion, I think all of these models are personally seeing a southerly jetstream this coming winter, personally in all these models, I can get the gist, that that's what the models are seeing, and a southerly jetstream apart from the CFSV2 probably, but even that one could be slightly hinting at it,  a southerly jet usually brings us cooler winters, so in this model update. I do believe each of these seasonal forecasts are showing that we could be having some cooler conditions this winter, it may not be prolonged cold, but I do think a cool winter is on the cards, I'm no way suggesting that they are going for severely cold conditions, because personally in this update I don't see any severely cold potential from these models, just cool conditions.

That's all for now, I plan to do another one, I didn't want to put all models in this blog post because I feel like for some people it'd be too long, I know myself I lose concentration quite easily. So stick around because Sunday, possibly Monday there'll be another one up.