September Month Ahead Forecast Update

Just a quick post today, about what I believe September may end up being like weather-wise. I'll do a longer update next time I do a September Month Ahead forecast but today is just a short one.

Looking at the model on TropicalTidbits.com, I see that it is predicting a milder September than average, for the United Kingdom, and Ireland and the majority of Europe, probably cooler near the Black Sea..



Precipitation wise, the United Kingdom, comes out slightly wetter than average up north, yet more closer to average down south. With wetter anomalies in the South West.


Most of continental Northern Europe is coming out drier than average but not too much, and southern Europe, specifically areas surrounding Italy is coming out wetter than average.


That was the CFS analysis.

On the same site we switch to canSIPS, monthly forecast for the month of September. In terms of precipitation the UK and Ireland, again are thought to be wetter than average, parts of Sweden, the east come out wetter, whereas further east into Europe there are slight signals for September to be drier.

Iceland, interestingly is signaled to be drier, so are parts of Greenland which may be a signal for Northern blocking...which would probably give the UK, and Ireland cooler weather (depending on where the blocking is situated).

However, on the contrary. Much of Europe comes out milder than average, with parts of the Baltic's being the mildest place compared to average. The UK and Ireland come out slightly milder than average.

Onto our final model now, before I come out with my own statement/opinion on what I think September will look like based on current models etc.

Looking at the NMME model on the same site, we see that the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland comes out drier than average, ever so slightly. same with much of mainland Europe.

Temperature wise the continent, again comes out warmer than average, and the same goes for the UK and Ireland this September.

Now, my personal opinion based on current observations is that I believe the first half of September will be drier, and milder than average, however as we progress I believe the Atlantic will break through giving us wetter than average conditions, more changeable. Which could in turn cause September to have a wetter than average anomaly. However the first half does look nice and dry if you like that sort of weather based on current observations.