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My Personal Thoughts on September.



Here I will give you my thoughts on what September may bring in terms of weather, after looking at all the models etc, and using my own skills to figure out how September 2018, the first month of Autumn may turn out.

This isn't my final forecast, it's just some personal thoughts on what I think September will be like, I'm still continuing to gather models as we speak, and plan to do the full detailed forecast on Bank Holiday Monday or Sunday. Not sure which, I will probably state which day it is on my twitter page @WeatherEast0

Looking at past Sea Surface temperature anomalies at around this point in August, I tried to find a match.



<img src="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png" />



That's what the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies look like today, in 2018, August.

I looked back through the records and compared the sea surface temperatures of other years on around the 24th of August to this one.

I came across, similar August Sea Surface Temperatures, 2003, 2004,  2008, and 2009. They were all virtually close. However not close enough for me so I threw them out of the pack then I came across, 2015.



2015 is quite similar, but the ocean was a lot colder in 2015... But it was similar.



<img src="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.8.24.2015.gif" />


September in 2015 was slightly cooler than average, a bit warmer than average for parts of Scotland and drier in the Western parts of Scotland. Whereas some parts of England where relatively wetter than average. There were fine and dry spells in the month tho. But from the 12-24 is was quite changeable.

In my 1st Autumn Update a while back, I did state that the first half of Autumn, could be quite cold. And again going by these sea surface anomalies, which are comparable to 2015. I think increasingly there are signs of cooler weather for September. However there will be fine spots of weather all around, I specifically think the East at times could see fine spells in September, and have dry periods here and there, but I think overall we'll see more rain driving in, probably thundery spells too, specifically for the South. I do think the first part of September will have the finest weather, then after things will go more westerly, wet and chilly. But I'm not seeing signs of overly cool weather. Just slightly cooler than average or maybe average conditions.

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