Autumn Forecast Update

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In this update I'll be first looking at the sea surface temperature anomaly, the 7 day trend, and from there, I'll look at the strongest anomalies and research a bit more, and use the strongest sea surface anomalies and paint a picture of what I think in this Autumn will happen.

Sea Surface 7 Day Trend Anomalies

Looking at this chart I immediately come across some deep, deep blues around Scandinavia and a lot of red to patches n the north which could be a sign for northern blocking throughout the first half of autumn.

In General Looking at that map I believe that pretty much all of Europe, specifically in the first half of Autumn could be quite cold to be honest, or chilly. However I think parts of  Scotland and Ireland will be drier than other parts England, as they'll be influenced by a relatively weak high pressure. Foggy nights look probably for Scotland and Ireland. Primarily I see that the continent as a whole will see a lot more North Easterly winds going by this first update, which suggests that Western Parts of Europe could be starting this autumn on a cool note.

I don't think (at this point) that it'll be cool all the way, unless that high pressure merges with the Greenland High. (Which may be difficult as the Atlantic revs up a lot in winter which could easily push the high pressure away, allowing us to get back to the norm of having Atlantic Weather systems across all of Europe.

I feel the beginning of Autumn could start on a cool note, (whilst things are still slightly quiet in the Atlantic) but through October, probably November I can see that weak block being pushed away by low pressure systems. so We'll probably go back to the norm in late October, most likely November.

It'll also depend on the amount of hurricanes the Atlantic has too because that can change the Autumn a lot, but so far I don't think there's any Atlantic Hurricanes yet.

Now we go to America.
I think for the United States in terms of weather it'll be fairly quiet this Autumn, hurricanes of course, but overall for the vast majority of the continental United States I think it'll be quiet with a lot of influences from high pressure. As Autumn progresses my hunch is that high pressure will collapse later on in the season, if the polar vortex is strong enough, later on in the autumn, especially in central parts of the US where their could be some cold incursions from the Polar vortex at the end of the season (November)
In the South of the US, particularly the states around the gulf of Mexico, I think it'll be quite a wet autumn, possibly some flooding in areas. But I think the worst of the flooding rains will be kept in Mexico, however rogue showers/lower pressure could hit parts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi etc. California and the West coast of the United States look like it'll be pretty dry in the first half of the season at least. Especially the majority of California, however some showers from the Baja California area could reach places in the far south like San Diego, to give some heavy rain this season.
I think temperatures for most of the United States will be milder this season, maybe average for places along the Gulf of Mexico. And I think it will be dry for most parts of the US for the season, parts of southern California may come out average or slightly wetter. But the majority of California will probably remain drier or average
Central Parts of the US looks as though it could be overall drier, and milder than average however in the latter half of the season, it may get pretty cold, if the high pressure splits. Which I believe it will do if the Polar Vortex goes into full swing.

Up to Canada we go for their 1st Update, Seasonal Forecast for Fall.

I believe Southern Ontario will be milder than average, and dominated by lots of high pressure especially at the beginning of the season. However in British Colombia I believe it'll be a pretty wet beginning of autumn which may last the whole season bringing average temperatures to the province. I think the majority of Canada will be dominated by Westerlies this coming Autumn, with increased incursions of very cold air later in the season. But I believe this Autumn in Canada will be fairly average for much of the nation. Probably milder in the West though. I think the high pressure dominating the United States will only occasionally interfere with the weather in Canada, except southern Ontario where I think it'll be perched there for much of the season, probably dwindling away in November.

Thats the first update done, I hope to make another update soon so if you enjoyed this update please come back next time. And if you'd like to support me and help me buy equipment then please help me Via Patreon:  https://www.patreon.com/WeatherEast

Thank you even if it's a $1 or $5 I appreciate it.