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Autumn Forecast 2018



Here it is, the final, final Autumn forecast for 2018. Covering September, October and November. I've been looking at previous posts to get a gist of what I think, properly will happen in the season of Autumn.

Well CANSIPs  seems to be going for a milder than average September right now, and October, but in November it slightly goes cooler, more average for CANSIPS.

They're predicting a wet September, a dry October (signs of high pressure on us) may come out as quite a foggy October. November comes out wetter in the CANSIPS analysis, for England and Wales. Dry for northern parts of Scotland.


Here at Weather East we've been collecting data recently etc, and now we will provide you with our Autumn Seasonal Outlook.

SEPTEMBER

Looking at our private charts, and data etc. for September it is looking quite interesting I think, and a bit difficult. So I'm not sure if I'll be totally correct but I believe September will be a mix of month. I do think the azores high will come back, then retreat, and come back again giving us pleasant, summery weather still, and sunny skies. However I think in between we'll be having increased influences from the Atlantic, I think the Atlantic weather systems could rev up and barge into the country towards the end of September. I think this September will be milder than average. I don't think there will be prolonged heat throughout September. Probably 1-3 or so days of good weather, then we get some westerlies and rain and wind. I am leaning to a slightly wetter than average September or maybe even average in terms of rainfall, even though we will get drier interludes here and there.

I have an inkling that this upcoming September may play out similarly to that of September 2016, but I think this September will be more influenced by the Atlantic compared to 2016, which would limit the temperatures a bit more, and make the heat less prolonged, compared to 2016.



OCTOBER

My personal opinion on what I think October is that I think low pressure will strengthen down in the Mediterranean, pushing the high pressure up North, probably on top of the United Kingdom, this will be quite foggy, and pretty dry I think. I think the British High will connect with the Scandinavian high,bringing south easterly, or easterly winds to the UK and Ireland,  I think it'll be a an average maybe slightly milder than average October. But a very Crisp one, and quite dry.


NOVEMBER

We know at this time of year, the Atlantic revs up, but I believe the high pressure over Scandinavia will strengthen and that the jet stream will dip south this month, sending low pressure to parts of the Mediterranean, some strong low pressure systems could clip the south western areas of the UK, but the majority should go towards the Med. I think the Scandinavian High will further strengthen to the east. I'm a bit conflicted here, but I do think the winds will come in a North Westerly direction for the UK and Ireland. I think it'll be chilly possibly similar to the previous chilly Novembers we've had of recent, I'm not seeing any signs of overly cold weather in November.

But I believe November will be showery, mainly north westerly, cool, not overly wet. I'd say that it'll come out average precipitation or slightly drier, and average temperatures to slightly cooler temperatures.

OVERALL

Overall I think the Autumn will come out milder than average, but I'm not seeing an extremely mild Autumn this year, I think it may come similarly close to the Autumn of 2016 I personally think.

I don't think it'll be a washout Autumn, I think October will be the driest month out of the two, I think we'll be seeing a lot more white colours of the Met Office charts than blue, and I believe we'll be seeing a lot of browns on the met office charts too. Definitely not seeing a washout Autumn, however we'll see as the Autumn progresses.



That's the forecast from WeatherEast regarding this Autumn!

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