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Autumn Update CanSIPS Analysis


This is the final Autumn update, before we post our detailed and finalised Autumn Forecast on Saturday 25th 2018.

We'll look at some general models in this update and see what conclusions they have in store for this Autumn, as well as my final thoughts on what will happen, based on my method for forecasting this Autumn

Lets take a look at the seasonal canSIPS model first. The canSIPS model is showing low pressure near the UK . With High Pressure up north near Greenland. It's tricky, but I believe if this model is right then we'd be seeing a westerly September, cool, and showery with no usual bursts of heat like 2016. Could be hinting at another September similar to last year.

In terms of temperatures they are coming out slightly milder than average. Which I agree with going by that chart. I think it could be a close one with being slightly milder and an average September. So far I'm not seeing any signs of a colder than average September...So far.

<img src="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2018080100/cansips_T2ma_global_2.png" />

Temperature Anomalies for September. Nothing out of the ordinary really.



In terms of precipitation, it comes out slightly wetter than average, which is usual generally in a south westerly- westerly September.

<img src="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2018080100/cansips_apcpna_month_eu_2.png" />

So going by this model overall for September, to me it looks fairly average maybe some heat but overall not much just more-close to average and rainy going by this. for September.



For October, things look relatively dry on the CanSIPS model with high pressure on top of the United Kingdom and Ireland. I believe we should be getting predominant south easterly winds, and may be easterly at times. But even though we get these winds it'll still be quite mild, because Europe is still mild at this point in the year. It'll be foggy though, which is good for those who like autumn to be foggy.

Temperature wise, it's going for a milder than average October, and that I understand because the winds look like they'll come up from the south east, and in October it's still quite warm in that area. But the anomalies aren't going for an extremely mild October surprisingly. It looks more or less slightly warmer or close to average.

<img src="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2018080100/cansips_T2ma_global_3.png" />

Precipitation, it's looking drier for much of the UK and Ireland, maybe average  for some parts of the two countries. But for the vast majority they're both looking dry.



<img src="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2018080100/cansips_apcpna_month_eu_3.png" />
<p style="text-align:center;"><strong>NOVEMBER</strong></p>
On to the final month of Autumn, November...one of the most exciting months for weather lovers.

November is looking quite interesting from CANSIPS, a mid atlantic ridge looks like it could be building in, in November. Going by this model.  Looking at this I think the jetstream is taking a southerly dip in this month. Maybe bringing predominant North westerly winds I think.



Interestingly, the temperature anomalies for November are signifying colder than average weather for Ireland, average conditions for the UK, I believe this going by the chart, and the UK could go colder if the Atlantic ridge moves further to Greenland. However I think the charts support my conclusion that I think it'll be a predominantly north-westerly November. (Going by these charts)



<img src="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2018080100/cansips_T2ma_eu_4.png" />

Precipitation, looks wetter than average for  England and Wales, and drier in the north of Scotland. More average precipitation for Ireland, slightly wetter in the East.


I believe this is a sign that the jetstream is taking a southerly track this November, which would give Ireland and the UK more increased chances of seeing colder weather this November.

<strong>I plan to get more models and do a new post for Thursday 23rd regarding Autumn 2018. By analysing a new chart. </strong>



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